OBSERVE
Historical Land Cover
Monitor Agriculture, Built-Up, Water and Other land classes through a multi-temporal Landsat series.
GeoGuardian transforms historical satellite observations into an integrated environmental and urban risk framework designed to support agricultural-land protection and proactive monitoring in Gharbia Governorate.
Monitor Agriculture, Built-Up, Water and Other land classes through a multi-temporal Landsat series.
Isolate direct Agriculture → Built-Up conversion to identify actual observed agricultural encroachment.
Combine thermal patterns with regional atmospheric indicators to characterize environmental pressure.
Integrate dynamic urban scenarios, environmental stress and scenario agreement into future planning priorities.
Agriculture → Built-Up during 2000–2010.
Agricultural land classified as High or Very High predictive risk.
Strong persistent monitoring priority supported across scenarios.
Strong temporal discrimination in the first independent hindcast.
Every analytical product answers a different planning question. Together they build the evidence chain from historical change to future risk.
Establishes the historical spatial baseline of Agriculture, Built-Up, Water and Other land classes.
Measures direct conversion of agricultural land into urban/built-up land rather than gross built-up change.
Maps the spatial distribution of Landsat-derived land surface temperature across the historical observation years.
Integrates current NO₂ exposure, positive NO₂ change and historical positive AOD increase into a regional pollution-pressure index.
Tests whether the spatial suitability model can rank future Agriculture → Built-Up conversion in independent later periods.
Uses final RF suitability with annually updated spatial features to allocate future Agriculture → Built-Up conversion.
Integrates urban threat, current thermal stress and current pollution pressure into a transparent planning-priority index.
The system maintains a clear separation between historical observation, independent temporal validation and future scenario allocation.
Landsat, MERRA-2 and Sentinel-5P products.
Harmonized multi-year land-cover classification.
Direct pairwise transition detection.
Built proximity, local density and agricultural context.
Earlier periods predict independent later transitions.
Annual deterministic allocation with dynamic feature updates.
Urban, thermal and atmospheric risk integration.
Persistence, scenario agreement and robust critical core.
Explore historical change, environmental pressure, model validation, future scenarios and predictive monitoring priorities.
Historical Land Cover and Agriculture → Built-Up layers are now connected directly to the final GeoGuardian project outputs. Additional analytical themes will be integrated progressively.
GeoGuardian Gharbia was developed as a graduation project to move beyond retrospective mapping toward proactive spatial monitoring. The system combines observed land transformation, validated spatial suitability, future scenarios and environmental pressure into an integrated planning-support framework.